💡 Click any month cell below to break it down year-by-year.
💡 Click any week cell to break it down year-by-year.
💡 Click any weekday cell to break it down year-by-year.
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Jan — script -0.23σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jan residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.33σ
2025-0.32σ
2024-0.05σ
2023-0.31σ
2022-0.17σ
2021-0.24σ
2020-0.14σ
2019-0.22σ
2018-0.04σ
2017+0.12σ
2016-0.41σ
2015+0.12σ
2014-0.29σ
2013-0.10σ
2012+0.35σ
2011-0.65σ
2010-0.35σ
2009-0.31σ
2008-1.04σ
2007-0.13σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jan: -0.23σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Jan at least this cold turns up 6.0% of the time — so the 15% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Feb — script -0.25σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Feb residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.12σ
2025-0.61σ
2024-0.07σ
2023-0.29σ
2022-0.35σ
2021+0.26σ
2020-0.48σ
2019-0.17σ
2018-0.39σ
2017+0.09σ
2016-0.51σ
2015-0.09σ
2014+0.01σ
2013-0.45σ
2012+0.06σ
2011-0.34σ
2010-0.20σ
2009-0.36σ
2008-0.22σ
2007-0.69σ
Why this reads grey — the subtle one
chance’s 95% reachthis Feb: -0.25σ
On its own this looks strong: a random reshuffle beats it only 4.5% of the time. But it is 1 of 12 months tested for Nifty 500; correct for looking at all 12 (dependency-safe Benjamini–Hochberg–Yekutieli) and it no longer stands. Strong in isolation ≠ surviving the look across the whole calendar — 20% up, still grey.
mechanism: — · gates: fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Mar — script -0.16σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Mar residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.85σ
2025+0.27σ
2024-0.10σ
2023-0.13σ
2022+0.06σ
2021-0.08σ
2020-1.42σ
2019+0.28σ
2018-0.35σ
2017+0.03σ
2016+0.35σ
2015-0.32σ
2014+0.21σ
2013-0.18σ
2012-0.19σ
2011+0.17σ
2010-0.01σ
2009+0.19σ
2008-0.89σ
2007-0.20σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Mar: -0.16σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Mar at least this cold turns up 26.9% of the time — so the 40% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: M-FYEND · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Apr — script +0.06σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Apr residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.43σ
2025+0.05σ
2024+0.05σ
2023+0.14σ
2022-0.18σ
2021-0.11σ
2020+0.70σ
2019-0.14σ
2018+0.17σ
2017+0.01σ
2016-0.02σ
2015-0.30σ
2014-0.10σ
2013+0.06σ
2012-0.18σ
2011-0.18σ
2010-0.13σ
2009+0.58σ
2008+0.20σ
2007+0.08σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Apr: +0.06σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Apr at least this hot turns up 86.1% of the time — so the 55% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · May — script -0.06σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's May residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.15σ
2025+0.04σ
2024-0.12σ
2023+0.03σ
2022-0.37σ
2021+0.21σ
2020-0.25σ
2019-0.07σ
2018-0.23σ
2017-0.06σ
2016+0.00σ
2015+0.02σ
2014+0.30σ
2013-0.11σ
2012-0.39σ
2011-0.28σ
2010-0.30σ
2009+1.14σ
2008-0.55σ
2007-0.03σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis May: -0.06σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a May at least this cold turns up 82.6% of the time — so the 35% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Jun — script -0.13σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jun residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.06σ
2025+0.04σ
2024+0.26σ
2023+0.07σ
2022-0.40σ
2021-0.06σ
2020+0.26σ
2019-0.22σ
2018-0.22σ
2017-0.14σ
2016-0.02σ
2015-0.17σ
2014+0.14σ
2013-0.30σ
2012+0.12σ
2011-0.15σ
2010-0.01σ
2009-0.28σ
2008-1.17σ
2007-0.19σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jun: -0.13σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Jun at least this cold turns up 54.7% of the time — so the 30% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Jul — script -0.04σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jul residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.04σ
2025-0.30σ
2024+0.06σ
2023+0.05σ
2022+0.31σ
2021-0.07σ
2020+0.16σ
2019-0.43σ
2018+0.10σ
2017+0.12σ
2016+0.10σ
2015-0.01σ
2014-0.11σ
2013-0.25σ
2012-0.18σ
2011-0.26σ
2010-0.14σ
2009+0.14σ
2008+0.09σ
2007-0.08σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jul: -0.04σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Jul at least this cold turns up 93.0% of the time — so the 45% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Aug — script -0.15σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Aug residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.15σ
2025-0.27σ
2024-0.10σ
2023-0.18σ
2022+0.09σ
2021+0.17σ
2020+0.05σ
2019-0.17σ
2018+0.03σ
2017-0.18σ
2016-0.04σ
2015-0.41σ
2014-0.00σ
2013-0.34σ
2012-0.14σ
2011-0.54σ
2010-0.13σ
2009-0.08σ
2008-0.21σ
2007-0.33σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Aug: -0.15σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Aug at least this cold turns up 28.4% of the time — so the 20% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Sep — script -0.12σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Sep residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.47σ
2025-0.09σ
2024-0.04σ
2023-0.03σ
2022-0.30σ
2021+0.03σ
2020-0.14σ
2019+0.09σ
2018-0.66σ
2017-0.18σ
2016-0.19σ
2015-0.15σ
2014-0.09σ
2013+0.09σ
2012+0.23σ
2011-0.23σ
2010+0.13σ
2009+0.12σ
2008-0.82σ
2007+0.30σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Sep: -0.12σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Sep at least this cold turns up 49.8% of the time — so the 35% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Oct — script -0.19σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Oct residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.25σ
2025+0.07σ
2024-0.48σ
2023-0.29σ
2022+0.07σ
2021-0.13σ
2020-0.00σ
2019+0.05σ
2018-0.33σ
2017+0.17σ
2016-0.06σ
2015-0.06σ
2014+0.08σ
2013+0.26σ
2012-0.19σ
2011+0.10σ
2010-0.14σ
2009-0.45σ
2008-1.63σ
2007+0.34σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Oct: -0.19σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Oct at least this cold turns up 35.3% of the time — so the 40% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Nov — script -0.11σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Nov residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.10σ
2024-0.14σ
2023+0.20σ
2022+0.02σ
2021-0.29σ
2020+0.47σ
2019-0.07σ
2018+0.06σ
2017-0.13σ
2016-0.39σ
2015-0.18σ
2014+0.04σ
2013-0.17σ
2012+0.07σ
2011-0.61σ
2010-0.32σ
2009+0.14σ
2008-0.53σ
2007-0.20σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Nov: -0.11σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Nov at least this cold turns up 49.2% of the time — so the 37% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Dec — script -0.06σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Dec residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.17σ
2024-0.22σ
2023+0.27σ
2022-0.30σ
2021-0.03σ
2020+0.22σ
2019-0.11σ
2018-0.10σ
2017+0.04σ
2016-0.19σ
2015-0.11σ
2014-0.21σ
2013-0.02σ
2012-0.08σ
2011-0.41σ
2010-0.06σ
2009+0.00σ
2008+0.17σ
2007+0.21σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Dec: -0.06σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Dec at least this cold turns up 84.6% of the time — so the 32% you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: M-YEAREND · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 1 — year by year — script +0.10σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 1 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.40σ
2025+0.20σ
2024-0.07σ
2023-0.39σ
2022+0.35σ
2021+0.49σ
2020+0.11σ
2019-0.42σ
2018+0.04σ
2017+0.15σ
2016-0.88σ
2015+0.50σ
2014-0.10σ
2013+0.17σ
2012+0.20σ
2011-0.85σ
2010+0.10σ
2009+1.37σ
2008+0.60σ
2007+0.15σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 1: +0.10σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 1 at least this hot turns up 80.6% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 2 — year by year — script -0.29σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 2 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.75σ
2025-1.06σ
2024+0.03σ
2023-0.04σ
2022+0.37σ
2021-0.13σ
2020-0.05σ
2019-0.04σ
2018+0.05σ
2017+0.26σ
2016-0.81σ
2015-0.36σ
2014-0.26σ
2013-0.39σ
2012+0.44σ
2011-0.85σ
2010+0.05σ
2009-1.54σ
2008-0.78σ
2007-0.05σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 2: -0.29σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 2 at least this cold turns up 11.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 3 — year by year — script -0.23σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 3 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.12σ
2025-0.27σ
2024-0.28σ
2023-0.14σ
2022-0.90σ
2021-0.27σ
2020+0.16σ
2019-0.04σ
2018-0.02σ
2017-0.20σ
2016-0.26σ
2015+0.35σ
2014-0.02σ
2013+0.10σ
2012+0.41σ
2011-0.08σ
2010-0.75σ
2009-0.42σ
2008-1.76σ
2007-0.07σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 3: -0.23σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 3 at least this cold turns up 21.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 4 — year by year — script -0.43σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 4 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.90σ
2025-0.52σ
2024-0.53σ
2023-0.97σ
2022-0.94σ
2021-1.39σ
2020-0.21σ
2019-0.47σ
2018+0.09σ
2017+0.71σ
2016+0.33σ
2015+0.41σ
2014-0.14σ
2013-0.24σ
2012+0.56σ
2011-0.96σ
2010-0.90σ
2009-1.09σ
2008-1.42σ
2007-0.03σ
Why this reads grey — the subtle one
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 4: -0.43σ
On its own this looks strong: a random reshuffle beats it only 2.0% of the time. But it is 1 of 53 weeks tested for Nifty 500; correct for looking at all 53 (dependency-safe Benjamini–Hochberg–Yekutieli) and it no longer stands. Strong in isolation ≠ surviving the look across the whole calendar — — up, still grey.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-RUNUP · gates: fdr-fail
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 5 — year by year — script -0.06σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 5 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.23σ
2025+0.08σ
2024+0.43σ
2023-0.02σ
2022+0.37σ
2021+1.63σ
2020-0.99σ
2019+0.01σ
2018-0.99σ
2017+0.17σ
2016-0.34σ
2015-0.15σ
2014-0.60σ
2013-0.29σ
2012+0.29σ
2011-0.52σ
2010-0.46σ
2009+1.18σ
2008-0.73σ
2007-0.06σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 5: -0.06σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 5 at least this cold turns up 64.7% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-RUNUP · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 6 — year by year — script -0.21σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 6 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.68σ
2025-0.08σ
2024-0.09σ
2023-0.07σ
2022-0.42σ
2021+0.25σ
2020+0.73σ
2019-0.18σ
2018-0.49σ
2017+0.02σ
2016-1.49σ
2015-0.59σ
2014-0.15σ
2013-0.49σ
2012+0.14σ
2011-0.57σ
2010+0.10σ
2009-0.38σ
2008-0.81σ
2007-0.31σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 6: -0.21σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 6 at least this cold turns up 26.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-DAY · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,variance
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 7 — year by year — script -0.12σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 7 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.26σ
2025-1.22σ
2024+0.08σ
2023-0.16σ
2022-0.39σ
2021-0.26σ
2020-0.22σ
2019-0.63σ
2018-0.18σ
2017-0.11σ
2016+0.41σ
2015+0.25σ
2014-0.22σ
2013-0.28σ
2012+0.47σ
2011+0.34σ
2010-0.26σ
2009+0.47σ
2008+0.30σ
2007-0.59σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 7: -0.12σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 7 at least this cold turns up 60.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 8 — year by year — script -0.40σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 8 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.06σ
2025-0.09σ
2024+0.01σ
2023-0.68σ
2022-0.88σ
2021-0.57σ
2020-0.14σ
2019+0.08σ
2018-0.10σ
2017+0.16σ
2016-0.60σ
2015-0.03σ
2014+0.20σ
2013-0.24σ
2012-0.76σ
2011-0.73σ
2010-0.08σ
2009-1.38σ
2008-0.84σ
2007-1.17σ
Why this reads grey — the subtle one
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 8: -0.40σ
On its own this looks strong: a random reshuffle beats it only 2.0% of the time. But it is 1 of 53 weeks tested for Nifty 500; correct for looking at all 53 (dependency-safe Benjamini–Hochberg–Yekutieli) and it no longer stands. Strong in isolation ≠ surviving the look across the whole calendar — — up, still grey.
mechanism: — · gates: fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 9 — year by year — script -0.17σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 9 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.37σ
2025-1.26σ
2024-0.05σ
2023+0.07σ
2022-0.70σ
2021+0.47σ
2020-1.72σ
2019+0.13σ
2018-0.21σ
2017-0.22σ
2016+1.09σ
2015-0.07σ
2014+0.28σ
2013-0.61σ
2012-0.23σ
2011+0.73σ
2010+0.50σ
2009-0.11σ
2008+0.02σ
2007-1.14σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 9: -0.17σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 9 at least this cold turns up 39.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 10 — year by year — script -0.28σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 10 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.99σ
2025+0.47σ
2024-0.13σ
2023-0.31σ
2022+0.38σ
2021-0.03σ
2020-0.54σ
2019+0.36σ
2018-0.68σ
2017-0.10σ
2016-0.06σ
2015+0.07σ
2014+0.55σ
2013+0.48σ
2012-0.22σ
2011-0.41σ
2010-0.24σ
2009-1.06σ
2008-2.66σ
2007-0.50σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 10: -0.28σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 10 at least this cold turns up 13.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 11 — year by year — script -0.35σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 11 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.26σ
2025-0.52σ
2024-0.80σ
2023-0.52σ
2022+0.75σ
2021-0.61σ
2020-2.77σ
2019+0.51σ
2018-0.10σ
2017+0.56σ
2016+0.06σ
2015-0.89σ
2014-0.21σ
2013-0.38σ
2012-0.19σ
2011-0.35σ
2010+0.08σ
2009+0.71σ
2008-0.48σ
2007-0.60σ
Why this reads grey — the subtle one
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 11: -0.35σ
On its own this looks strong: a random reshuffle beats it only 4.5% of the time. But it is 1 of 53 weeks tested for Nifty 500; correct for looking at all 53 (dependency-safe Benjamini–Hochberg–Yekutieli) and it no longer stands. Strong in isolation ≠ surviving the look across the whole calendar — — up, still grey.
mechanism: — · gates: fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 12 — year by year — script -0.27σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 12 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.20σ
2025+1.04σ
2024+0.04σ
2023-0.35σ
2022-0.25σ
2021-0.42σ
2020-2.80σ
2019-0.14σ
2018-0.61σ
2017-0.20σ
2016+0.37σ
2015-0.40σ
2014-0.01σ
2013-0.90σ
2012-0.23σ
2011+0.60σ
2010-0.23σ
2009+0.43σ
2008-1.94σ
2007+0.80σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 12: -0.27σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 12 at least this cold turns up 19.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 13 — year by year — script +0.20σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 13 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.53σ
2025-0.08σ
2024+0.33σ
2023+0.38σ
2022+0.47σ
2021+0.81σ
2020-0.36σ
2019+0.22σ
2018+0.29σ
2017+0.09σ
2016-0.07σ
2015-0.62σ
2014+0.45σ
2013+0.08σ
2012-0.06σ
2011+0.38σ
2010-0.03σ
2009+1.38σ
2008+1.30σ
2007-0.44σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 13: +0.20σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 13 at least this hot turns up 26.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 14 — year by year — script -0.13σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 14 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.28σ
2025-0.85σ
2024+0.35σ
2023+0.34σ
2022+0.21σ
2021-0.06σ
2020-1.51σ
2019-0.09σ
2018+0.45σ
2017+0.02σ
2016-0.42σ
2015+0.82σ
2014-0.02σ
2013-0.43σ
2012+0.13σ
2011-0.01σ
2010+0.06σ
2009+0.62σ
2008-1.31σ
2007-0.57σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 14: -0.13σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 14 at least this cold turns up 45.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 15 — year by year — script +0.30σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 15 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+1.36σ
2025-0.20σ
2024-0.11σ
2023+0.21σ
2022-0.62σ
2021-0.61σ
2020+4.04σ
2019-0.16σ
2018+0.07σ
2017-0.13σ
2016+0.99σ
2015+0.35σ
2014+0.23σ
2013-0.20σ
2012-0.51σ
2011-0.20σ
2010-0.49σ
2009+1.16σ
2008+0.30σ
2007+0.52σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 15: +0.30σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 15 at least this hot turns up 17.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 16 — year by year — script +0.12σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 16 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.52σ
2025+1.49σ
2024-0.63σ
2023-0.30σ
2022-0.48σ
2021-0.56σ
2020+0.49σ
2019+0.09σ
2018+0.03σ
2017-0.10σ
2016+0.05σ
2015-0.63σ
2014-0.16σ
2013+0.73σ
2012+0.09σ
2011-0.02σ
2010-0.08σ
2009+0.40σ
2008+1.05σ
2007+0.42σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 16: +0.12σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 16 at least this hot turns up 68.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 17 — year by year — script -0.09σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 17 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.44σ
2025+0.02σ
2024+0.34σ
2023+0.39σ
2022-0.30σ
2021+0.31σ
2020-0.46σ
2019-0.24σ
2018+0.07σ
2017+0.24σ
2016-0.25σ
2015-0.85σ
2014-0.05σ
2013+0.17σ
2012-0.41σ
2011-0.53σ
2010-0.18σ
2009+0.32σ
2008+0.36σ
2007-0.21σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 17: -0.09σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 17 at least this cold turns up 61.7% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 18 — year by year — script -0.18σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 18 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.00σ
2025+0.05σ
2024+0.01σ
2023-0.04σ
2022-1.30σ
2021+0.19σ
2020+1.67σ
2019-0.37σ
2018-0.42σ
2017-0.19σ
2016-0.38σ
2015-0.40σ
2014-0.41σ
2013+0.18σ
2012-0.63σ
2011-0.76σ
2010-0.87σ
2009-0.43σ
2008+0.39σ
2007+0.17σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 18: -0.18σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 18 at least this cold turns up 31.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 19 — year by year — script -0.28σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 19 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.29σ
2025-0.49σ
2024-0.66σ
2023+0.13σ
2022-1.17σ
2021-0.33σ
2020-1.37σ
2019-0.87σ
2018+0.03σ
2017+0.12σ
2016+0.09σ
2015-0.18σ
2014+0.27σ
2013+0.23σ
2012-0.66σ
2011-0.14σ
2010+0.03σ
2009+0.67σ
2008-1.21σ
2007-0.44σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 19: -0.28σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 19 at least this cold turns up 10.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 20 — year by year — script +0.03σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 20 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.72σ
2025+1.07σ
2024+0.45σ
2023-0.24σ
2022+0.53σ
2021+0.60σ
2020-0.26σ
2019-0.05σ
2018-0.60σ
2017-0.23σ
2016-0.34σ
2015+0.14σ
2014+0.79σ
2013+0.11σ
2012-0.31σ
2011-0.40σ
2010-0.69σ
2009+0.06σ
2008+0.35σ
2007+0.41σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 20: +0.03σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 20 at least this hot turns up 86.6% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 21 — year by year — script +0.15σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 21 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.02σ
2025-0.24σ
2024+0.29σ
2023+0.25σ
2022-0.18σ
2021+0.18σ
2020-0.37σ
2019+0.74σ
2018-0.12σ
2017+0.04σ
2016+0.68σ
2015+0.33σ
2014+0.71σ
2013-0.74σ
2012-0.05σ
2011-0.18σ
2010+0.16σ
2009+2.87σ
2008-1.16σ
2007-0.14σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 21: +0.15σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 21 at least this hot turns up 37.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 22 — year by year — script +0.01σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 22 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.13σ
2025-0.13σ
2024-0.54σ
2023+0.01σ
2022+0.17σ
2021+0.30σ
2020+1.30σ
2019+0.04σ
2018-0.05σ
2017+0.04σ
2016-0.00σ
2015-0.15σ
2014-0.50σ
2013-0.16σ
2012-0.39σ
2011+0.02σ
2010+0.12σ
2009+0.95σ
2008-0.61σ
2007-0.02σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 22: +0.01σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 22 at least this hot turns up 100.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 23 — year by year — script -0.08σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 23 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.34σ
2025+0.20σ
2024+0.61σ
2023-0.05σ
2022-0.59σ
2021+0.12σ
2020+1.14σ
2019-0.32σ
2018-0.00σ
2017-0.03σ
2016-0.17σ
2015-0.84σ
2014+0.86σ
2013-0.37σ
2012+0.55σ
2011-0.23σ
2010-0.24σ
2009+0.43σ
2008-1.35σ
2007-0.89σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 23: -0.08σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 23 at least this cold turns up 71.1% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 24 — year by year — script -0.28σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 24 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.00σ
2025-0.40σ
2024+0.30σ
2023+0.26σ
2022-1.38σ
2021-0.42σ
2020-0.40σ
2019-0.28σ
2018-0.08σ
2017-0.23σ
2016-0.11σ
2015-0.48σ
2014-0.34σ
2013-0.51σ
2012+0.01σ
2011-0.51σ
2010+0.12σ
2009-0.36σ
2008-0.73σ
2007-0.11σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 24: -0.28σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 24 at least this cold turns up 14.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 25 — year by year — script -0.13σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 25 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.40σ
2025-0.02σ
2024-0.12σ
2023-0.37σ
2022+0.39σ
2021+0.10σ
2020+0.40σ
2019-0.33σ
2018-0.24σ
2017-0.26σ
2016-0.32σ
2015+0.44σ
2014-0.18σ
2013-0.56σ
2012-0.07σ
2011-0.03σ
2010-0.04σ
2009-1.13σ
2008-0.88σ
2007+0.18σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 25: -0.13σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 25 at least this cold turns up 51.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 26 — year by year — script +0.03σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 26 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.18σ
2025+0.40σ
2024+0.17σ
2023+0.54σ
2022-0.03σ
2021-0.21σ
2020+0.26σ
2019+0.03σ
2018-0.44σ
2017-0.20σ
2016+0.56σ
2015+0.20σ
2014+0.00σ
2013+0.22σ
2012+0.30σ
2011+0.33σ
2010-0.12σ
2009+0.14σ
2008-1.42σ
2007+0.02σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 26: +0.03σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 26 at least this hot turns up 91.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 27 — year by year — script +0.03σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 27 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.04σ
2025-0.21σ
2024+0.26σ
2023+0.03σ
2022+0.53σ
2021-0.09σ
2020+0.21σ
2019-0.14σ
2018-0.07σ
2017+0.21σ
2016-0.10σ
2015+0.12σ
2014+0.50σ
2013-0.04σ
2012+0.07σ
2011-0.05σ
2010+0.11σ
2009+0.05σ
2008-0.86σ
2007-0.03σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 27: +0.03σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 27 at least this hot turns up 91.5% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 28 — year by year — script -0.18σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 28 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.09σ
2025-0.42σ
2024-0.05σ
2023+0.11σ
2022-0.21σ
2021+0.19σ
2020+0.15σ
2019-0.57σ
2018+0.20σ
2017+0.23σ
2016+0.28σ
2015-0.36σ
2014-1.01σ
2013+0.23σ
2012-0.41σ
2011-0.33σ
2010-0.08σ
2009-1.74σ
2008+0.08σ
2007+0.28σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 28: -0.18σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 28 at least this cold turns up 33.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 29 — year by year — script +0.02σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 29 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.16σ
2025-0.16σ
2024-0.43σ
2023+0.03σ
2022+0.68σ
2021-0.25σ
2020+0.07σ
2019-0.48σ
2018-0.28σ
2017-0.07σ
2016-0.05σ
2015+0.42σ
2014+0.44σ
2013-0.14σ
2012-0.23σ
2011-0.06σ
2010-0.06σ
2009+1.33σ
2008-0.13σ
2007-0.08σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 29: +0.02σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 29 at least this hot turns up 90.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 30 — year by year — script -0.09σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 30 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.56σ
2025-0.40σ
2024+0.27σ
2023-0.09σ
2022+0.34σ
2021-0.18σ
2020+0.32σ
2019-0.39σ
2018+0.50σ
2017+0.04σ
2016+0.13σ
2015-0.33σ
2014+0.01σ
2013-0.63σ
2012-0.58σ
2011-0.64σ
2010-0.35σ
2009+0.52σ
2008+0.91σ
2007-0.79σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 30: -0.09σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 30 at least this cold turns up 62.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 31 — year by year — script -0.16σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 31 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.39σ
2025-0.48σ
2024-0.18σ
2023-0.21σ
2022+0.19σ
2021+0.30σ
2020-0.25σ
2019-0.71σ
2018+0.09σ
2017-0.07σ
2016-0.05σ
2015-0.05σ
2014-0.56σ
2013-0.91σ
2012+0.28σ
2011-0.99σ
2010+0.05σ
2009+0.16σ
2008+0.14σ
2007-0.36σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 31: -0.16σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 31 at least this cold turns up 37.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 32 — year by year — script -0.17σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 32 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.10σ
2025-0.38σ
2024-0.45σ
2023-0.18σ
2022+0.28σ
2021+0.02σ
2020+0.25σ
2019+0.10σ
2018-0.06σ
2017-0.92σ
2016-0.18σ
2015+0.06σ
2014-0.24σ
2013-0.47σ
2012+0.09σ
2011-0.58σ
2010-0.05σ
2009-0.62σ
2008+0.32σ
2007-0.56σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 32: -0.17σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 32 at least this cold turns up 30.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 33 — year by year — script -0.21σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 33 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.26σ
2025+0.14σ
2024+0.01σ
2023-0.30σ
2022+0.02σ
2021-0.37σ
2020-0.10σ
2019-0.36σ
2018-0.02σ
2017+0.35σ
2016+0.03σ
2015-0.32σ
2014+0.40σ
2013-0.26σ
2012+0.04σ
2011-1.22σ
2010+0.00σ
2009+0.23σ
2008-0.79σ
2007-1.44σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 33: -0.21σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 33 at least this cold turns up 24.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 34 — year by year — script -0.17σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 34 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.21σ
2025+0.15σ
2024+0.19σ
2023-0.06σ
2022-0.27σ
2021+0.23σ
2020+0.34σ
2019-0.60σ
2018+0.07σ
2017-0.10σ
2016-0.30σ
2015-0.54σ
2014+0.26σ
2013-0.31σ
2012-0.13σ
2011-0.50σ
2010-0.45σ
2009-0.38σ
2008-0.73σ
2007-0.08σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 34: -0.17σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 34 at least this cold turns up 34.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 35 — year by year — script +0.13σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 35 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.15σ
2025-0.80σ
2024+0.15σ
2023+0.18σ
2022-0.04σ
2021+0.69σ
2020+0.35σ
2019+0.30σ
2018+0.15σ
2017+0.20σ
2016+0.30σ
2015-0.82σ
2014-0.10σ
2013-0.16σ
2012-0.53σ
2011+1.45σ
2010+0.07σ
2009+0.56σ
2008-0.09σ
2007+0.95σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 35: +0.13σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 35 at least this hot turns up 51.7% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 36 — year by year — script -0.07σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 36 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.41σ
2025+0.21σ
2024-0.39σ
2023+0.37σ
2022+0.22σ
2021-0.01σ
2020-0.71σ
2019-0.30σ
2018-0.38σ
2017-0.14σ
2016+0.09σ
2015-0.60σ
2014+0.27σ
2013+0.47σ
2012+0.13σ
2011-0.06σ
2010+0.32σ
2009-0.29σ
2008-0.24σ
2007+0.09σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 36: -0.07σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 36 at least this cold turns up 73.6% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 37 — year by year — script -0.03σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 37 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.53σ
2025+0.20σ
2024+0.27σ
2023+0.08σ
2022-0.45σ
2021+0.13σ
2020+0.02σ
2019+0.24σ
2018-0.35σ
2017+0.17σ
2016-0.41σ
2015-0.26σ
2014+0.07σ
2013+0.53σ
2012+0.40σ
2011-0.14σ
2010+0.28σ
2009+0.16σ
2008-0.85σ
2007-0.18σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 37: -0.03σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 37 at least this cold turns up 88.6% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 38 — year by year — script -0.07σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 38 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.17σ
2025+0.13σ
2024+0.10σ
2023-0.76σ
2022-0.40σ
2021+0.09σ
2020+0.12σ
2019+0.30σ
2018-1.12σ
2017-0.46σ
2016+0.04σ
2015+0.31σ
2014-0.15σ
2013+0.30σ
2012+0.38σ
2011-0.82σ
2010+0.01σ
2009+0.38σ
2008-0.57σ
2007+0.87σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 38: -0.07σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 38 at least this cold turns up 75.1% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 39 — year by year — script -0.36σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 39 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.38σ
2025-0.90σ
2024+0.12σ
2023-0.10σ
2022-0.46σ
2021-0.39σ
2020-1.03σ
2019+0.24σ
2018-0.82σ
2017-0.44σ
2016-0.53σ
2015-0.36σ
2014-0.58σ
2013-0.55σ
2012+0.04σ
2011-0.05σ
2010+0.09σ
2009-0.19σ
2008-1.34σ
2007+0.42σ
Why this reads grey — the subtle one
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 39: -0.36σ
On its own this looks strong: a random reshuffle beats it only 4.0% of the time. But it is 1 of 53 weeks tested for Nifty 500; correct for looking at all 53 (dependency-safe Benjamini–Hochberg–Yekutieli) and it no longer stands. Strong in isolation ≠ surviving the look across the whole calendar — — up, still grey.
mechanism: — · gates: fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 40 — year by year — script -0.19σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 40 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.09σ
2025+0.23σ
2024-1.23σ
2023-0.14σ
2022+0.23σ
2021+0.35σ
2020+0.74σ
2019-0.99σ
2018-1.54σ
2017+0.39σ
2016+0.20σ
2015+0.15σ
2014-0.12σ
2013+0.16σ
2012+0.06σ
2011-0.52σ
2010-0.14σ
2009+0.36σ
2008-1.29σ
2007+0.36σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 40: -0.19σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 40 at least this cold turns up 35.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 41 — year by year — script -0.17σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 41 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025+0.15σ
2024-0.07σ
2023-0.02σ
2022-0.46σ
2021+0.54σ
2020+0.51σ
2019+0.06σ
2018+0.21σ
2017+0.20σ
2016-0.50σ
2015+0.35σ
2014-0.36σ
2013+0.51σ
2012-0.30σ
2011+0.60σ
2010-0.28σ
2009-0.54σ
2008-4.18σ
2007+0.40σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 41: -0.17σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 41 at least this cold turns up 55.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 42 — year by year — script -0.21σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 42 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025+0.10σ
2024-0.31σ
2023-0.36σ
2022+0.23σ
2021-0.64σ
2020-0.40σ
2019+0.57σ
2018-0.51σ
2017-0.13σ
2016+0.12σ
2015-0.12σ
2014-0.39σ
2013+0.12σ
2012-0.13σ
2011-0.45σ
2010-0.11σ
2009+0.56σ
2008-1.10σ
2007-1.09σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 42: -0.21σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 42 at least this cold turns up 25.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 43 — year by year — script -0.23σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 43 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.05σ
2024-1.04σ
2023-0.83σ
2022+0.13σ
2021-0.57σ
2020+0.20σ
2019-0.14σ
2018-0.68σ
2017+0.23σ
2016-0.22σ
2015+0.13σ
2014+0.61σ
2013-0.20σ
2012-0.28σ
2011+0.91σ
2010-0.33σ
2009-0.69σ
2008-3.04σ
2007+1.44σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 43: -0.23σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 43 at least this cold turns up 15.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 44 — year by year — script +0.13σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 44 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.13σ
2024+0.17σ
2023+0.16σ
2022+0.25σ
2021+0.36σ
2020-0.57σ
2019+0.48σ
2018+1.01σ
2017+0.20σ
2016-0.86σ
2015-0.58σ
2014+0.48σ
2013+0.31σ
2012-0.03σ
2011-0.29σ
2010+0.53σ
2009-1.23σ
2008+1.91σ
2007+0.37σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 44: +0.13σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 44 at least this hot turns up 55.7% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 45 — year by year — script -0.17σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 45 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.38σ
2024-0.31σ
2023+0.23σ
2022+0.06σ
2021+0.13σ
2020+0.85σ
2019-0.18σ
2018-0.01σ
2017-0.35σ
2016-0.51σ
2015-0.42σ
2014+0.03σ
2013-0.67σ
2012-0.15σ
2011-0.87σ
2010-0.75σ
2009+0.37σ
2008+0.51σ
2007-0.80σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 45: -0.17σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 45 at least this cold turns up 39.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 46 — year by year — script -0.29σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 46 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025+0.14σ
2024-0.98σ
2023+0.22σ
2022-0.28σ
2021-0.61σ
2020+0.57σ
2019-0.18σ
2018-0.03σ
2017-0.17σ
2016-0.86σ
2015-0.57σ
2014+0.04σ
2013-0.40σ
2012-0.41σ
2011-1.18σ
2010-0.83σ
2009+0.52σ
2008-1.29σ
2007+0.78σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 46: -0.29σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 46 at least this cold turns up 16.4% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 47 — year by year — script -0.29σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 47 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.20σ
2024+0.18σ
2023-0.09σ
2022+0.09σ
2021-0.97σ
2020+0.17σ
2019-0.11σ
2018-0.47σ
2017+0.10σ
2016+0.02σ
2015+0.12σ
2014+0.03σ
2013-0.28σ
2012-0.06σ
2011-0.74σ
2010-0.75σ
2009-0.04σ
2008-1.40σ
2007-1.15σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 47: -0.29σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 47 at least this cold turns up 9.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 48 — year by year — script +0.19σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 48 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.02σ
2024+0.31σ
2023+0.56σ
2022+0.17σ
2021+0.07σ
2020+0.19σ
2019+0.15σ
2018+0.38σ
2017-0.53σ
2016-0.17σ
2015+0.11σ
2014+0.06σ
2013+0.38σ
2012+0.79σ
2011+0.83σ
2010+0.49σ
2009-0.49σ
2008+0.04σ
2007+0.38σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 48: +0.19σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 48 at least this hot turns up 32.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 49 — year by year — script -0.03σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 49 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.24σ
2024+0.45σ
2023+0.54σ
2022-0.35σ
2021+0.28σ
2020+0.50σ
2019-0.45σ
2018-0.52σ
2017+0.15σ
2016+0.28σ
2015-0.42σ
2014-0.08σ
2013+0.08σ
2012+0.03σ
2011-0.90σ
2010-0.71σ
2009+0.52σ
2008-0.32σ
2007+0.58σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 49: -0.03σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 49 at least this cold turns up 91.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 50 — year by year — script -0.14σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 50 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.25σ
2024-0.10σ
2023+0.36σ
2022-0.38σ
2021-0.82σ
2020+0.24σ
2019+0.11σ
2018+0.21σ
2017-0.08σ
2016-0.47σ
2015-0.59σ
2014-0.80σ
2013-0.42σ
2012-0.23σ
2011-1.02σ
2010+0.17σ
2009-0.16σ
2008+1.35σ
2007+0.20σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 50: -0.14σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 50 at least this cold turns up 38.3% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 51 — year by year — script -0.20σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 51 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.20σ
2024-1.14σ
2023-0.24σ
2022-0.95σ
2021-0.15σ
2020+0.21σ
2019+0.12σ
2018-0.16σ
2017+0.32σ
2016-0.58σ
2015+0.28σ
2014-0.15σ
2013+0.25σ
2012-0.18σ
2011-0.11σ
2010-0.03σ
2009-0.53σ
2008+0.90σ
2007-1.40σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 51: -0.20σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 51 at least this cold turns up 35.8% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 52 — year by year — script +0.05σ over 19 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 52 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.03σ
2024+0.01σ
2023+0.38σ
2022+0.41σ
2021+0.33σ
2020-0.19σ
2019-0.13σ
2018+0.06σ
2017+0.02σ
2016+0.33σ
2015+0.16σ
2014-0.11σ
2013+0.10σ
2012+0.09σ
2011-0.47σ
2010+0.15σ
2009+0.57σ
2008-1.84σ
2007+1.17σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 52: +0.05σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Week 52 at least this hot turns up 75.1% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Week 53 — year by year — script +0.21σ over 5 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 53 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2021+0.37σ
2020+0.32σ
2016+0.27σ
2015+0.10σ
2009+0.01σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 53: +0.21σ
Only 5 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Mon — year by year — script -0.16σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Mon residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.27σ
2025-0.08σ
2024-0.06σ
2023-0.00σ
2022-0.23σ
2021-0.09σ
2020-1.03σ
2019-0.13σ
2018-0.11σ
2017+0.10σ
2016-0.11σ
2015-0.25σ
2014+0.17σ
2013-0.09σ
2012-0.27σ
2011-0.26σ
2010+0.12σ
2009+0.09σ
2008-0.75σ
2007-0.01σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Mon: -0.16σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Mon at least this cold turns up 11.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Tue — year by year — script -0.08σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Tue residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.16σ
2025-0.18σ
2024-0.33σ
2023+0.01σ
2022+0.18σ
2021+0.30σ
2020+0.44σ
2019-0.16σ
2018-0.16σ
2017-0.08σ
2016-0.10σ
2015-0.28σ
2014-0.12σ
2013-0.25σ
2012+0.25σ
2011-0.25σ
2010-0.31σ
2009-0.16σ
2008-0.37σ
2007+0.07σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Tue: -0.08σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Tue at least this cold turns up 83.6% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Wed — year by year — script -0.06σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Wed residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.16σ
2025+0.14σ
2024-0.03σ
2023-0.08σ
2022-0.12σ
2021-0.08σ
2020+0.14σ
2019-0.14σ
2018-0.15σ
2017-0.03σ
2016-0.10σ
2015-0.07σ
2014+0.00σ
2013-0.23σ
2012-0.07σ
2011-0.05σ
2010-0.13σ
2009+0.18σ
2008-0.29σ
2007-0.24σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Wed: -0.06σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Wed at least this cold turns up 94.0% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Thu — year by year — script -0.16σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Thu residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.35σ
2025-0.10σ
2024-0.07σ
2023-0.14σ
2022-0.24σ
2021+0.05σ
2020+0.01σ
2019-0.15σ
2018-0.23σ
2017+0.02σ
2016-0.26σ
2015-0.05σ
2014-0.10σ
2013+0.00σ
2012-0.12σ
2011-0.45σ
2010-0.16σ
2009-0.04σ
2008-0.81σ
2007-0.01σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Thu: -0.16σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Thu at least this cold turns up 16.9% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: F-EXPIRY · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,variance
Behind the script · Nifty 500 · Fri — year by year — script -0.12σ over 20 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Fri residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.30σ
2025-0.39σ
2024+0.08σ
2023-0.00σ
2022-0.22σ
2021-0.33σ
2020+0.19σ
2019+0.04σ
2018-0.12σ
2017-0.06σ
2016-0.02σ
2015-0.03σ
2014+0.01σ
2013-0.08σ
2012-0.02σ
2011-0.39σ
2010-0.23σ
2009+0.25σ
2008-0.55σ
2007-0.19σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Fri: -0.12σ
Reshuffle Nifty 500’s own calendar at random and a Fri at least this cold turns up 49.2% of the time — so the — you see sits inside what pure chance produces. That is the whole reason it stays grey.
mechanism: — · gates: null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism