💡 Click any month cell below to break it down year-by-year.
💡 Click any week cell to break it down year-by-year.
💡 Click any weekday cell to break it down year-by-year.
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Jan — script -0.29σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jan residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.58σ
2025-0.84σ
2024+0.11σ
2023-0.36σ
2022-0.24σ
2021-0.11σ
2020+0.18σ
2019-0.48σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jan: -0.29σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Feb — script -0.40σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Feb residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.21σ
2025-1.07σ
2024-0.31σ
2023-0.45σ
2022-0.75σ
2021+0.46σ
2020-0.56σ
2019-0.34σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Feb: -0.40σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Mar — script -0.42σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Mar residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.88σ
2025+0.27σ
2024-0.53σ
2023-0.32σ
2022+0.09σ
2021-0.12σ
2020-2.25σ
2019+0.42σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Mar: -0.42σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: M-FYEND · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Apr — script +0.15σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Apr residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.67σ
2025-0.16σ
2024+0.32σ
2023+0.19σ
2022-0.20σ
2021+0.10σ
2020+0.63σ
2019-0.34σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Apr: +0.15σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · May — script -0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's May residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.16σ
2025+0.24σ
2024-0.34σ
2023+0.03σ
2022-0.69σ
2021+0.35σ
2020-0.27σ
2019-0.12σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis May: -0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Jun — script -0.00σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jun residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.02σ
2025+0.03σ
2024+0.32σ
2023+0.09σ
2022-0.57σ
2021+0.10σ
2020+0.57σ
2019-0.53σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jun: -0.00σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Jul — script -0.09σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Jul residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.20σ
2025-0.47σ
2024-0.01σ
2023+0.15σ
2022+0.21σ
2021+0.23σ
2020+0.14σ
2019-0.78σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Jul: -0.09σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Aug — script -0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Aug residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.12σ
2025-0.52σ
2024-0.20σ
2023+0.01σ
2022+0.07σ
2021-0.33σ
2020+0.46σ
2019-0.34σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Aug: -0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Sep — script -0.13σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Sep residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.43σ
2025-0.22σ
2024-0.20σ
2023-0.10σ
2022-0.27σ
2021+0.12σ
2020+0.04σ
2019+0.06σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Sep: -0.13σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Oct — script -0.38σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Oct residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.63σ
2025-0.08σ
2024-0.46σ
2023-0.33σ
2022-0.12σ
2021-0.16σ
2020-0.18σ
2019-0.07σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Oct: -0.38σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Nov — script -0.06σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Nov residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.49σ
2024-0.28σ
2023+0.27σ
2022-0.08σ
2021-0.19σ
2020+0.52σ
2019-0.16σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Nov: -0.06σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Dec — script -0.09σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Dec residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.30σ
2024-0.26σ
2023+0.08σ
2022-0.31σ
2021+0.08σ
2020+0.27σ
2019-0.18σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Dec: -0.09σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: M-YEAREND · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 1 — year by year — script +0.19σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 1 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.13σ
2025+0.04σ
2024+0.17σ
2023-0.42σ
2022+0.29σ
2021+0.59σ
2020+0.81σ
2019-0.12σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 1: +0.19σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 2 — year by year — script -0.35σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 2 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.08σ
2025-1.80σ
2024+0.01σ
2023-0.17σ
2022+0.52σ
2021-0.32σ
2020+0.25σ
2019-0.18σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 2: -0.35σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 3 — year by year — script -0.30σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 3 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.26σ
2025-0.45σ
2024-0.19σ
2023-0.46σ
2022-0.97σ
2021-0.37σ
2020+0.65σ
2019-0.35σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 3: -0.30σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 4 — year by year — script -0.92σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 4 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.56σ
2025-1.28σ
2024-0.45σ
2023-1.15σ
2022-1.20σ
2021-0.72σ
2020-0.04σ
2019-0.98σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 4: -0.92σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-RUNUP · gates: N<15,fdr-fail
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 5 — year by year — script +0.09σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 5 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.09σ
2025-0.31σ
2024+0.74σ
2023+0.05σ
2022+0.38σ
2021+1.20σ
2020-0.91σ
2019-0.36σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 5: +0.09σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-RUNUP · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 6 — year by year — script -0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 6 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.41σ
2025-0.16σ
2024-0.35σ
2023-0.04σ
2022-1.12σ
2021+0.42σ
2020+0.68σ
2019-0.81σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 6: -0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: M-BUDGET-DAY · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,variance
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 7 — year by year — script -0.71σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 7 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.07σ
2025-2.62σ
2024-0.30σ
2023-0.44σ
2022-0.92σ
2021+0.03σ
2020-0.42σ
2019-0.97σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 7: -0.71σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 8 — year by year — script -0.25σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 8 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.30σ
2025+0.02σ
2024-0.16σ
2023-0.64σ
2022-1.33σ
2021+0.21σ
2020-0.12σ
2019+0.32σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 8: -0.25σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 9 — year by year — script -0.44σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 9 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.37σ
2025-2.00σ
2024-0.27σ
2023-0.01σ
2022-0.26σ
2021+0.57σ
2020-1.81σ
2019+0.61σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 9: -0.44σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 10 — year by year — script -0.05σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 10 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.10σ
2025+0.98σ
2024-0.99σ
2023-0.17σ
2022+0.53σ
2021+0.15σ
2020-0.93σ
2019+1.10σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 10: -0.05σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 11 — year by year — script -1.16σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 11 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.11σ
2025-1.32σ
2024-1.68σ
2023-0.87σ
2022+0.29σ
2021-0.98σ
2020-3.86σ
2019+0.25σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 11: -1.16σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 12 — year by year — script -0.54σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 12 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.35σ
2025+1.57σ
2024+0.14σ
2023-0.61σ
2022-0.15σ
2021-0.55σ
2020-3.96σ
2019-0.38σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 12: -0.54σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 13 — year by year — script -0.05σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 13 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.49σ
2025-0.49σ
2024+0.20σ
2023+0.02σ
2022+0.49σ
2021+1.20σ
2020-1.63σ
2019+0.26σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 13: -0.05σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 14 — year by year — script +0.13σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 14 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.05σ
2025-0.90σ
2024+1.21σ
2023+0.57σ
2022+0.48σ
2021+0.37σ
2020-0.48σ
2019-0.13σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 14: +0.13σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 15 — year by year — script +0.31σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 15 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+1.33σ
2025-0.23σ
2024-0.13σ
2023+0.12σ
2022-0.52σ
2021-1.04σ
2020+3.08σ
2019-0.12σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 15: +0.31σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 16 — year by year — script +0.26σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 16 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.99σ
2025+1.46σ
2024-0.58σ
2023-0.17σ
2022-0.54σ
2021-0.20σ
2020+1.45σ
2019-0.34σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 16: +0.26σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 17 — year by year — script -0.10σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 17 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.29σ
2025-0.16σ
2024+0.73σ
2023+0.39σ
2022-0.75σ
2021+0.61σ
2020-0.80σ
2019-0.52σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 17: -0.10σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 18 — year by year — script -0.26σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 18 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.30σ
2025-0.60σ
2024-0.32σ
2023+0.06σ
2022-1.94σ
2021+0.43σ
2020+0.73σ
2019-0.77σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 18: -0.26σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 19 — year by year — script -0.65σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 19 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.71σ
2025-0.70σ
2024-1.32σ
2023+0.01σ
2022-1.84σ
2021+0.01σ
2020-1.18σ
2019-0.88σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 19: -0.65σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 20 — year by year — script +0.24σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 20 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.22σ
2025+1.72σ
2024+0.79σ
2023-0.08σ
2022+0.75σ
2021+0.72σ
2020-0.10σ
2019-0.65σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 20: +0.24σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 21 — year by year — script -0.08σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 21 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.18σ
2025-0.10σ
2024-0.41σ
2023+0.05σ
2022-0.89σ
2021+0.21σ
2020-0.53σ
2019+1.20σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 21: -0.08σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 22 — year by year — script +0.22σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 22 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.12σ
2025+0.14σ
2024-0.63σ
2023+0.29σ
2022+0.55σ
2021+0.40σ
2020+0.96σ
2019-0.05σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 22: +0.22σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 23 — year by year — script +0.21σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 23 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.17σ
2025+0.34σ
2024+0.54σ
2023+0.03σ
2022-0.72σ
2021+0.42σ
2020+2.00σ
2019-0.71σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 23: +0.21σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 24 — year by year — script -0.35σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 24 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.21σ
2025-0.38σ
2024+0.81σ
2023+0.38σ
2022-1.84σ
2021-0.60σ
2020-0.25σ
2019-0.68σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 24: -0.35σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 25 — year by year — script -0.02σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 25 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.59σ
2025-0.68σ
2024+0.08σ
2023-0.46σ
2022+0.17σ
2021+0.15σ
2020+0.74σ
2019-0.74σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 25: -0.02σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 26 — year by year — script +0.18σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 26 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.27σ
2025+0.71σ
2024-0.19σ
2023+0.29σ
2022-0.04σ
2021+0.39σ
2020+0.53σ
2019-0.01σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 26: +0.18σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 27 — year by year — script +0.11σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 27 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.12σ
2025-0.13σ
2024+0.55σ
2023+0.25σ
2022+0.39σ
2021+0.21σ
2020-0.19σ
2019-0.29σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 27: +0.11σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 28 — year by year — script -0.06σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 28 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.09σ
2025-0.44σ
2024-0.32σ
2023+0.14σ
2022-0.09σ
2021+0.63σ
2020+0.41σ
2019-0.68σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 28: -0.06σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 29 — year by year — script -0.28σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 29 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.41σ
2025+0.07σ
2024-1.15σ
2023+0.06σ
2022+0.65σ
2021-0.26σ
2020-0.19σ
2019-1.02σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 29: -0.28σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 30 — year by year — script -0.24σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 30 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.78σ
2025-0.99σ
2024+0.39σ
2023+0.01σ
2022-0.07σ
2021+0.08σ
2020+0.20σ
2019-0.76σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 30: -0.24σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 31 — year by year — script -0.36σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 31 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.16σ
2025-0.99σ
2024-0.23σ
2023-0.08σ
2022+0.10σ
2021-0.38σ
2020-0.08σ
2019-1.35σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 31: -0.36σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 32 — year by year — script -0.11σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 32 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.30σ
2025-0.73σ
2024-0.71σ
2023-0.13σ
2022-0.02σ
2021-0.60σ
2020+0.98σ
2019+0.05σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 32: -0.11σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 33 — year by year — script -0.31σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 33 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.36σ
2025-0.08σ
2024-0.21σ
2023-0.34σ
2022-0.08σ
2021-1.25σ
2020+0.38σ
2019-0.58σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 33: -0.31σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 34 — year by year — script +0.18σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 34 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.09σ
2025+0.27σ
2024+0.58σ
2023+0.17σ
2022+0.22σ
2021+0.23σ
2020+1.10σ
2019-1.03σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 34: +0.18σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 35 — year by year — script +0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 35 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.16σ
2025-1.23σ
2024-0.06σ
2023+0.64σ
2022+0.09σ
2021+0.65σ
2020+0.51σ
2019+0.50σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 35: +0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 36 — year by year — script +0.01σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 36 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.28σ
2025+0.28σ
2024-0.09σ
2023+0.40σ
2022+0.35σ
2021+0.36σ
2020-0.88σ
2019-0.04σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 36: +0.01σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 37 — year by year — script -0.09σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 37 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.44σ
2025+0.05σ
2024+0.03σ
2023-0.34σ
2022-0.49σ
2021+0.08σ
2020-0.31σ
2019+0.68σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 37: -0.09σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 38 — year by year — script -0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 38 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.33σ
2025+0.21σ
2024-0.37σ
2023-0.84σ
2022-0.59σ
2021-0.14σ
2020+1.18σ
2019-0.08σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 38: -0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 39 — year by year — script -0.48σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 39 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.42σ
2025-1.41σ
2024-0.36σ
2023+0.11σ
2022-0.49σ
2021+0.03σ
2020-1.37σ
2019+0.10σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 39: -0.48σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 40 — year by year — script -0.19σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 40 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-1.18σ
2025+0.30σ
2024-0.89σ
2023-0.04σ
2022+0.42σ
2021+0.50σ
2020+0.80σ
2019-1.41σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 40: -0.19σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 41 — year by year — script -0.14σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 41 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.15σ
2024-0.01σ
2023-0.07σ
2022-0.71σ
2021+0.51σ
2020-0.16σ
2019-0.40σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 41: -0.14σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 42 — year by year — script -0.29σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 42 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.33σ
2024-0.24σ
2023-0.25σ
2022-0.06σ
2021-1.23σ
2020-0.37σ
2019+0.47σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 42: -0.29σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 43 — year by year — script -0.44σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 43 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.04σ
2024-1.98σ
2023-1.07σ
2022-0.08σ
2021-0.35σ
2020+0.37σ
2019+0.06σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 43: -0.44σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 44 — year by year — script +0.23σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 44 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.16σ
2024+1.07σ
2023+0.18σ
2022+0.01σ
2021+0.71σ
2020-0.72σ
2019+0.51σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 44: +0.23σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 45 — year by year — script -0.24σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 45 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.78σ
2024-0.67σ
2023+0.43σ
2022-0.38σ
2021+0.04σ
2020+0.10σ
2019-0.42σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 45: -0.24σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 46 — year by year — script -0.34σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 46 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.20σ
2024-1.69σ
2023+0.35σ
2022-0.32σ
2021-0.62σ
2020+0.56σ
2019-0.46σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 46: -0.34σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 47 — year by year — script -0.18σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 47 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.78σ
2024-0.08σ
2023-0.23σ
2022+0.19σ
2021-0.68σ
2020+0.45σ
2019-0.16σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 47: -0.18σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 48 — year by year — script +0.37σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 48 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.27σ
2024+0.84σ
2023+0.48σ
2022+0.28σ
2021+0.14σ
2020+0.96σ
2019+0.20σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 48: +0.37σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 49 — year by year — script +0.00σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 49 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.62σ
2024+0.53σ
2023-0.00σ
2022-0.41σ
2021+0.55σ
2020+0.65σ
2019-0.69σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 49: +0.00σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 50 — year by year — script -0.22σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 50 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.42σ
2024-0.36σ
2023+0.33σ
2022-0.12σ
2021-0.89σ
2020+0.24σ
2019-0.33σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 50: -0.22σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 51 — year by year — script -0.53σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 51 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025-0.27σ
2024-1.02σ
2023-0.27σ
2022-2.03σ
2021-0.27σ
2020+0.20σ
2019-0.05σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 51: -0.53σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 52 — year by year — script +0.24σ over 7 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 52 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2025+0.08σ
2024-0.24σ
2023+0.26σ
2022+1.03σ
2021+0.68σ
2020-0.26σ
2019+0.11σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 52: +0.24σ
Only 7 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Week 53 — year by year — script +0.82σ over 2 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Week 53 residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Week 53: +0.82σ
Only 2 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Mon — year by year — script -0.39σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Mon residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.48σ
2025-0.36σ
2024-0.31σ
2023-0.14σ
2022-0.41σ
2021-0.24σ
2020-0.76σ
2019-0.38σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Mon: -0.39σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,fdr-fail,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Tue — year by year — script -0.09σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Tue residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.13σ
2025-0.29σ
2024-0.39σ
2023-0.09σ
2022-0.02σ
2021+0.36σ
2020+0.12σ
2019-0.27σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Tue: -0.09σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Wed — year by year — script +0.01σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Wed residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026+0.29σ
2025+0.11σ
2024+0.01σ
2023-0.05σ
2022-0.18σ
2021+0.01σ
2020+0.17σ
2019-0.32σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Wed: +0.01σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Thu — year by year — script -0.12σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Thu residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.36σ
2025-0.38σ
2024-0.07σ
2023+0.02σ
2022-0.28σ
2021+0.30σ
2020+0.06σ
2019-0.27σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Thu: -0.12σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: F-EXPIRY · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,variance
Behind the script · Nifty Smallcap 250 · Fri — year by year — script -0.18σ over 8 years, reported, not gated
In plain EnglishThe consensus shows the average year. Here is every year's Fri residual, newest first — the dispersion the single number hides. A run of similar bars = a real tendency; one or two outliers carrying it = not one.
2026-0.37σ
2025-0.62σ
2024-0.03σ
2023-0.07σ
2022-0.29σ
2021-0.22σ
2020+0.24σ
2019-0.05σ
Why this reads grey
chance’s 95% reachthis Fri: -0.18σ
Only 8 years of history — too few to test a stable seasonal read (needs ≥15). Shown for completeness, not assessed.
mechanism: — · gates: N<15,null-inside-band,fdr-fail,sign-unstable,no-mechanism