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patearn — Evidence Pack

Bottom lineThe trust surfaces assembled into one print-ready document: the pre-registered studies (failures published on purpose), every dataset's stated boundary, and the live service record. Evidence for diligence, not a pitch.
generated 2026-10-03 13:14 UTC · scope: NSE-listed Indian equities (EQ/BE/BZ; SME excluded) · descriptive evidence, point-in-time · not investment advice
This pack assembles patearn's trust surfaces into one document: the pre-registered detection spec-sheets (failures published on purpose), the coverage and provenance boundary of every dataset behind the product, the live season service record, and the point-in-time replay demonstrator. Every number here is generated from the running system and can be re-derived at the routes below — the pack is a snapshot of pages that exist, not a brochure.
/dash/spec-sheetsthe live detection spec-sheets — every pre-registered study, gate hashes attached, failures included
/dash/coveragethe live coverage & settlement ledger — the boundary of every dataset, stated in writing (print memo: /dash/coverage/memo)
/dash/testingstrategy validation — every backtest net of realistic cost, the failures kept as visible as the wins
/dash/replaythe zero-look-ahead demonstrator — scrub to a past date, see only what was knowable, then reveal what followed
/dash/glossaryevery custom metric and term on the site, defined
Tamper evidence (M-04): each study's hypothesis and pass/fail gate are hashed at registration, before the run; the sha256 chips on the sheets below come from that registry, and prereg --verify flags any post-hoc edit.
Patearn's rankings express a percentile rank-gap — where a name sits on a given factor relative to its peers — not a forecast of returns. No claim of investment performance is made or implied anywhere in this product. The lead-time study that would test whether any of these signals precede price is not yet built; until it is, every score is a descriptor of present, point-in-time evidence, and should be treated as decision-support, not a prediction.
Patearn is an analytical decision-support tool that supports SEBI Research Analyst Regulations workflows (evidence, as-of dating, source linkage). It is informational only, is not investment advice or a recommendation, and is not a substitute for the registrations or reviews that distribution of research to others may require.
1 · Method & standing caveats
🎲 Placebo (M-02), PEAD SUE-Q5 x DELIV-T3 CAR60 — observed +5.95% vs null mean +2.98% / null p95 +4.54% over 200 shuffles (seed 42). Observed / null-p95 = 1.3×; empirical one-sided p = 0.005. Generated 2026-07-07 06:03:13Z — a real effect must sit OUTSIDE the shuffled-date band; this one does.
📏 Standing caveats (M-05) — printed beside every claim, not buried: 44.1% of the 22-year tape mass is unjoinable to fundamentals (the delistings live exactly there); 1,706 / 1,722 delisted names are fundamentally dark; the price archive is left-censored at 2004-07-23 (773 names). Every fundamentals-conditioned lift is therefore survivor-tilted — the survivor-vs-terminal re-cut (the attribution code) measures the direction of that bias, and the Deflated-Sharpe / PBO stages (M-03) are one import away in evlib for every study; factory auto-wiring lands with the next factory run.
2 · Detection spec-sheets — every completed study, failures included

PEAD on real BSE result dates, delivery-confirmeddescriptive lens CONFIRMEDbook FALSIFIED

pre-registered: 2026-07-05 (A-study) · within-season variant pre-registered 2026-07-05b · gate sha256 83a290a0ce12…
Hypothesis
A high Net-Profit surprise (SUE, no analysts) CONFIRMED by abnormal delivered value drifts upward over the next ~60 sessions — on REAL announcement dates (provenance_knowable), zero look-ahead.
Gate (before the run)
Descriptive: cohort t ≥ ~2 on leak-free dates. Book: net return/vol > 0.89 (Nifty-500 B&H) in BOTH walk-forward halves under tiered+ATR costs.
Recorded result
Descriptive: SUE-Q5 × DELIV-T3 mean CAR60 +7.62% (n=235, t_cohort 1.92); same surprise on thin delivery only +3.7% (n=200); population +3.5%. Bad news did not drift. Book: EVERY wrapper failed — trailing net return/vol 0.10 · no-delivery 0.02 · 1.5× cost −0.32 · hedged −0.58 · within-season (the pre-registered last cell) 0.06 — vs benchmark 0.85.
What ships
The results-reaction war room (who just reported + delivery confirmation + realized drift, base-rates labelled). No ranking, no trigger, no book — the tradeable version is recorded dead in the failure ledger.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Experiment 2026-07-05 · the pead research code

Accumulation-footprint detector (front-detect the insider from the tape)gate FAIL — published

pre-registered: 2026-07-05b — gate written in the module docstring before the run · gate sha256 0d86d11bd7c4…
Hypothesis
Insider/SAST accumulation episodes leave a detectable tape footprint BEFORE the filing becomes public (delivery %, trade size, volume, price character vs self- and cross-sectional controls).
Gate (before the run)
≥2 of 4 features clear Cliff's δ ≥ +0.20 vs BOTH control sets.
Recorded result
FAIL 1/4 — only avg-trade-size cleared (δ +0.329 / +0.250). Structural finding: 764 of 947 episodes had NO pre-public window at all — SEBI PIT T+2 disclosure means the tape you can trade is already public. Usable n=54. delivery-% showed ~no case elevation (δ ≈ +0.07), consistent with the accumulation tape's earlier alpha failure.
What ships
The trade-size ratio as a DESCRIPTIVE column (Ticket, on Screen+ / Positioning / dossier) — a characterization, never a detector. Detection pivots to post-public designs (disclosure-drift E-03, campaign arcs E-04), each requiring fresh pre-registration.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Study 2026-07-05b · the footprint research code

Insider disclosure drift (E-03, post-public)gate FAIL — placebo caught it

pre-registered: 2026-07-07 (module docstring before the run) · gate sha256 b62429563b21…
Hypothesis
Conviction promoter-buy clusters drift up after their first public disclosure (the pre-public window is structurally dead — SEBI T+2).
Gate (before the run)
Top-value-quartile CAR60 t_cohort ≥ 2 AND observed clears the shuffled-date placebo p95 (n=200, seed 42).
Recorded result
The trap this page exists for: value-Q4 CAR60 +8.26% (n=66, plain t 2.87) — looks like a product. The placebo null's p95 is +9.52%: random windows of the same names drift just as hard (the 2025-26 tape). Inflation 0.87×, empirical p 0.085; cohort t is NaN because the feed is only ~10 months deep. NULL published.
What ships
Nothing. Re-attempt condition on record: ≥8 quarterly cohorts of feed depth and a placebo-clearing mean.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Studies 2026-07-08 · the insider drift research code

Filing-latency tell (late vs own norm)gate FAIL — null published

pre-registered: 2026-07-07 · gate sha256 06e7c085f500…
Hypothesis
Filing later than one's own historical norm is a tell — lateness predicts bad surprises and negative drift.
Gate (before the run)
|t_cohort(Q5−Q1 CAR60)| ≥ 2 AND |gap| > label-permutation p95 (500 perms).
Recorded result
Half the folk story is real: the latest filers carry the weakest surprises (mean SUE 0.77 vs 1.04 for the earliest). But it does not price: CAR60 gap −0.81% (t_cohort −0.84), inside the ±2.51% permutation band. Lateness predicts surprise MIX, not tradeable drift.
What ships
Nothing — no war-room flag. The surprise-mix fact may inform reading, never a signal.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Studies 2026-07-08 · the filing latency research code

Concall growth-intent walk-forward (real call dates)gate FAIL — covered-name beta

pre-registered: 2026-07-07; design correction recorded before the run (condition on statement PRESENCE at the call, not settlement) · gate sha256 c1c4cf9d5a1a…
Hypothesis
Calls pushing specific guidance content (debt reduction, capex, volume…) drift differently over the next 60 sessions — the old month-granular panel showed +2.8%/+2.3%/+1.5% tilts.
Gate (before the run)
Per type (n≥100): t_cohort ≥ 2 AND same-sign halves AND the largest passing type clears the date-shuffle placebo.
Recorded result
9,461 real-dated events. Six types pass t+halves (debt_reduction +3.52% t 2.43; capex +3.07% t 2.70) — and the placebo unmasks all of it: random windows of the SAME covered names drift +2.75% (p95 +3.66%); the observed means sit inside the null band (inflation 0.52×, emp-p 0.925). The old panel tilts are recorded NOT reproducible on real dates.
What ships
Nothing as an edge. Guidance remains a candor / kept-promise DESCRIPTIVE axis (Gate B fence unchanged).
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Studies 2026-07-08 · the concall intent research code

Dividend-surprise drift (E-11, post-ex)gate FAIL — payer beta

pre-registered: 2026-07-07 · the first gate HASHED before its run (M-04 registry) · gate sha256 e9bd1a7ff792…
Hypothesis
A dividend far above a name's own norm marks strength that drifts over the following 60 sessions (post-ex, the conservative clock).
Gate (before the run)
Surprise-Q5 CAR60 t_cohort ≥ 2 AND the date-shuffle placebo clears (n=200, seed 42).
Recorded result
22 years, 9,166 usable events. Q5 drifts +1.61% (t 2.60) — and so does everything else: CUTS drift +1.99%, hikes +1.61%, the LOWEST-surprise quintile +2.28% (55 cohorts). The placebo seals it: post-ex windows (+2.13%) drift LESS than random windows of the same payers (null mean +2.48%, p95 +3.58%). The 'surprise' has no direction — it is dividend-payer beta.
What ships
Nothing. Class rule generalized: covered-name / payer-universe drift is the null every event claim must beat.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Studies 2026-07-08 (S83g) · the dividend drift research code

Rebrand pump (E-12, stitched rename series)gate FAIL — no pump exists

pre-registered: 2026-07-07 · gate hashed before the run · gate sha256 c3f48a42abb1…
Hypothesis
A symbol rename pumps on the new identity, then fades.
Gate (before the run)
CAR22 t_cohort ≥ 2 AND placebo clears (pump); mean(CAR60−CAR22) < 0 with |t| ≥ 2 (fade). Wolfe power rule: 111 usable events = full-power claim.
Recorded result
The folk story is simply dead: CAR22 −0.41% (below even the placebo null of +0.47%), CAR60 +0.12%. No pump, and the fade leg earns no claim (pooled t 0.23; the cohort means run negative — outlier-carried, recorded as nuance). Method dividend: renames are unmeasurable on naive per-symbol series — this study shipped the reusable STITCHED old→new loader.
What ships
Nothing tradeable; the stitched loader joins the harness for every future boundary-crossing study.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger § Studies 2026-07-08 (S83g) · the rebrand pump research code

Wolfe waves — geometry as a selection lensdescriptive selection edge (BULL only)trade book FALSIFIED

pre-registered: §A locked 2026-06-24 (rules), §C trade-mechanics tested 2026-06-25
Hypothesis
Completed Wolfe geometries mark exhaustion points whose resolutions beat matched baselines (entry pt-5 zone, SL zone-edge ±0.3%, T1/T2).
Gate (before the run)
Per-trade net edge vs matched non-pattern baselines; side-split honesty.
Recorded result
The EDGE IS SELECTION, not mechanics: BULL completions carry +1.37% abnormal (median +2.14%) — but the mechanical trade book is dead: median −2%/trade net, the top 1% of trades carries 58% of profit. BEAR side is tail-only: regime-stripped −0.19%, decaying to −0.94% in 2021-26.
What ships
The Wolfe scanner + chart overlay as a descriptive lens (BULL-weighted, side split shown); never a mechanical trigger. Harmonic (XABCD) ships under the same fence.
Source of truth
the strategy ledger Tier-2/§C · the Wolfe rule book · the wolfe code

Rigorous calendar seasonality on the PIT idiosyncratic residualdescriptive estate LIVEtradeable calendar edge FALSIFIED

pre-registered: 2026-07-12 — 3 hypothesis families sha256-hashed BEFORE any compute (2882ccbc · cb32d1b9 · e566904c), frozen in research.db.prereg_registry; the engine docstring is part of the hash, so the gate cannot move.
Hypothesis
Do Indian indices / sectors / stocks run systematically hot or cold on the calendar (month · ISO-week · weekday) AFTER the market move is stripped out — a tradeable idiosyncratic-residual seasonality?
Gate (before the run)
A cell CERTIFIES only if it clears BOTH placebo nulls (circular-block + cyclic-rotation, p<0.05), family-wide BH-Yekutieli FDR, ≥15 scored years, out-of-sample sign-stability, AND a pre-pledged India mechanism — the year-label shuffle is banned (zero-width). Nothing is graded on the same data it was found in.
Recorded result
0 cells certified — across index + sector, all ~2,427 EQ stocks, and the broad Nifty 50/100/200/500 deepened to 2004 (~20 scored years, N-gate PASSES). The single strongest broad cell (Nifty 500 February) clears one placebo (p=0.0498) but dies under FDR. Individual names look overwhelming — MARUTI September up 89% of 18 years — yet clear the single-calendar placebo only to die under the multiple-months correction. Deeper data did not rescue it: the greying is on merits, not thin history.
What ships
The Seasonal Tape estate — /dash/seasonal-tape + screen + divergence + the event-cadence lens + the /dash/stock embed — kept strictly DESCRIPTIVE. Every drilled cell shows its year-by-year dispersion and a placebo ‘why-grey’ read; nothing is ranked, triggered, or tradeable. The greying IS the finding.
Source of truth
PROJECT_STATE §Session 120/130 · the strategies folder · the seasonal tape code (frozen families in research.db.prereg_registry)
3 · Coverage & limits — the boundary, in writing
Credibility robust core the only delivery-graded set
117
names with ≥10 graded promises — credibility here means tested delivery, not disclosure
Universe (survivorship-correct)
4,718
securities ever observed · 2,962 active · 1,756 delisted/inactive (retained)
Fundamentals availability
modeled
annual +90d / quarterly +50d synthetic lag — not point-in-time (§6)
Credibility settlement funnel — honest, monotone, denominator-first
2,225
concall symbols touched
→
947
scored
→
475
≥1 promise resolved
→
324
≥3 resolved
→
117
robust core ≥10
The headline is the robust core, not the breadth: “symbols touched” counts every name with a concall on file, most of which have few or no resolved promises yet. Coverage shrinks left-to-right; each step is a stricter, more honest count. 947 carry an LLM credibility snapshot; the resolved-promise distribution and tier matrix below count the 943 with a full point-in-time series (level + momentum), so they total 943, not 947 (the 4-name gap is names scored but without a settled series yet).
Per-data-class coverage matrix
DatasetSourceCoverageGrainBasisLatestFreshness
As-traded equity OHLCNSE bhav copy6,318 symbols · 2.1× today's active setarchivedailyas traded2026-10-01current
Exchange delivery qty/%NSE sec_bhavdata_full6,318 symbols · 2.1× today's active setarchivedailyas traded2026-10-01current
Index OHLC + PE/PB/divyieldNSE ind_close_all5,749 daysdailyas traded2026-10-01current
Split/bonus/dividend/rightsNSE corp-action feed2,842 symbols · 95.9% of activeeventevent2026-10-28current
Stock-futures OI / PCR / basis / max-painNSE F&O bhav (UDiFF)561 symbols · 18.9% of activedailyas traded2026-10-01current
FII/DII/Pro/Client long-shortNSE participant-wise OI3,653 daysmarket-levelas traded2026-10-01current
Market net FII/DII flowsNSE fiidii72 daysmarket-levelingested2026-10-01current
Named bulk/block dealsNSE bulk/block feed958 symbols · 32.3% of activeeventingested2026-10-01current
Index constituents + weightniftyindices826 symbols · 27.9% of activesnapshotingested2026-10-02current
NSE EQUITY_L allowlistNSE EQUITY_L.csv2,593 symbols · 87.5% of activesnapshotingested2026-10-02current
Market news headlineRSS (MC/Mint/ET/BS)— symbolseventingested2026-10-02current
DVPT baselines / R-P / character / key-pricecomputed4,034 symbols · 1.4× today's active setarchivederivedderived2026-10-01current
Signed accumulation/distribution tapecomputed4,214 symbols · 1.4× today's active setarchivederivedderived2026-10-01current
CPR structure (D/W/M)computed2,635 symbols · 89.0% of activederivedderived2026-10-01current
Stock RS vs broad & sector + rankcomputed4,034 symbols · 1.4× today's active setarchivederivedderived2026-10-01current
Index returns/MA/52w + RS phasecomputed3,610 daysderivedderived2026-10-01current
Strength/direction, RSI-of-RS, Mansfieldcomputed177 seriesderivedderived2026-10-01current
RS band % / regime / break statecomputed131 seriesderivedderived2026-10-01current
Down/up capture, down-excesscomputed190 seriesderivedderived2026-10-01current
Typed state-change eventscomputed3,045 symbols · 1.0× today's active setarchiveeventderived2026-10-02current
Current Screener snapshot ratiosScreener.in scrape112 symbols · 3.8% of activesnapshotingested2026-07-16current
Historical financial time-seriesScreener.in scrape (legacy, source IS NULL) + NSE XBRL results (source=NSE-XBRL-*, 2026-07→)2,318 symbols · 78.3% of activequarterlymodeled2026-10-01current
Quarterly shareholdingScreener.in scrape2,114 symbols · 71.4% of activequarterlymodeled2026-10-01current
Business description corpusScreener.in596 symbols · 20.1% of activesnapshotingested2026-07-16current
AI business dossier versGemini flash-lite (grounded)3,797 symbols · 1.3× today's active setarchivesnapshotingested2026-06-25current
Multi-label theme tagsindex-seed / AI / human384 symbols · 13.0% of activesnapshotingested2026-09-27current
Per-symbol news tags versrule gazetteer / classifier1,302 symbols · 44.0% of activeeventingested2026-10-02current
14-pattern patearn scorecomputed279 symbols · 9.4% of activederivedderived2026-10-02current
Transcript metadata + pathScreener → BSE PDF2,225 symbols · 75.1% of activeeventeventSep 2026Sep 2026
Reported quarterly numbersScreener quarterly table117 symbols · 4.0% of activeeventeventSep 2025Sep 2025
LLM guidance/behavior/redflags versGemini Flash on transcript943 symbols · 31.8% of activeeventingestedSep 2025Sep 2025
Promise MET/MISSED/PARTIALdeterministic vs results943 symbols · 31.8% of activeeventeventSep 2025Sep 2025
Credibility score + rank (snapshot) verscomputed PIT947 symbols · 32.0% of activederivedderivedSep 2017Sep 2017
PIT credibility level + momentum + tape verscomputed PIT943 symbols · 31.8% of activederivedderivedSep 2026Sep 2026
Capital-allocation (C) compositecomputed2,146 symbols · 72.5% of activederivedderived2026-10-02current
Basis — as traded: a real NSE exchange date · ingested: a real first-seen/fetch time · event: a real event date · derived: computed from a real-dated source · modeled: a synthetic uniform lag (see §6). “days” coverage = distinct trading days for market-level/index classes (which have no per-stock split). Every coverage ratio on this table is measured against today’s active set. Where a dataset covers more symbols than are listed today it is shown as a multiple (e.g. “2.1× today’s active set”) rather than a percentage — the archive retains delisted and renamed series (see Universe), so exceeding the live universe is by design, and a percentage above 100 would be meaningless.
Availability datingFundamental history is assigned an availability date using a uniform modelled lag — 90 days after period-end for annual results, 50 days for quarterly — applied identically to every company. This is a modelled approximation of when results became public, not an observed filing date. A company that filed late will appear knowable earlier than it was; one that filed early will appear unknown when it was already public. Accordingly these surfaces are labelled “modeled-availability” and must not be read as point-in-time. A true first-seen date is captured only going forward (it does not exist for historical periods).
Universe & survivorshipOur security universe is built from the raw daily bhav-copy archive, not a current-constituents list. Delisted, suspended and surveillance-series names are kept, so historical analysis can see companies that later disappeared rather than only today's survivors. A company is followed across a symbol rename as one continuous security where an ISIN handover confirms it; demergers, mergers and schemes of arrangement are recorded as continuity-break events so a structural gap is never mistaken for a price move. One asymmetry we state plainly: the price/survivorship spine retains delisted names, while the fundamental history covers the names listed today — the two universes are not identical.
Concall credibilityConcall Credibility measures a management's stated guidance against the results that subsequently landed — a measurement of delivery-versus-guidance, not a judgment of management integrity. A company's credibility level becomes meaningful only once its guidance has resolved. Until then the level is held at a fixed ceiling and reflects only the quantification rate — how specific and falsifiable the guidance was — which is a disclosure metric, not evidence of delivery. Roughly one-third of scored names currently have no resolved promises, and many high bands rest on fewer than three. We therefore define a robust core of names with at least ten graded promises, and report credibility tiers for that core only. Momentum is undefined for the first period and stabilises after about four. Every figure carries its as-of call date and its resolved-promise count; verify each against the original transcript.
Coverage selection (missing-not-at-random)Concall coverage is missing-not-at-random: India's transcript mandate is phased by company size and era, so small-cap and earlier-period absence is systematic. A study restricted to names with concalls is implicitly tilted toward larger, more recent companies — read coverage with that selection in mind.
SourcingFundamental and concall data are presently obtained from public web sources (including Screener.in and BSE filings); price and delivery data derive from NSE's published bhav-copy archive. These sources are public and each figure links to its origin, but the present collection method is scraped, not a licensed feed. Migration to owned or licensed data sources is planned as part of a backend rebuild ahead of production distribution.
Validation disciplineWe test our own strategies and publish what fails. Every strategy we have backtested is recorded with its results net of realistic cost (tier spread + slippage), walk-forward 2012–26, no look-ahead — the failures kept as visible as the wins. The honest verdict so far: nothing that scales beats a Nifty 500 buy-and-hold net of cost. One low-turnover corner does clear the bar once the cost model accounts for the size of the money — and that result is not yet in the run table below, which is itself a defect we are recording rather than hiding. We state all of that plainly, because a research process is only trustworthy if its negative results are on the record — and only honest if its positive ones are too. No performance claim follows from this surface — it is the rigor evidence behind the product, not a strategy lens or a return promise.
The full Coverage & Provenance Memo — universe funnel, per-class coverage, credibility settlement, modeled-vs-filed dating, the provenance registry — is its own print artifact at /dash/coverage/memo; the live ledger is /dash/coverage.
4 · Season service record (live)
⏱ Filing→surface MTTR (charter §9 KPI, live) — 1896 fresh results events since Jul-07: median 3d filing→board; 398 surfaced by the next evening. Day-level (real BSE date → first-seen date); the baseline seed run is excluded.
Single-node deployment; no high-availability / disaster-recovery today. Data-delivery SLA, freshness monitoring with alerting, and a SOC 2 / security path are on the procurement roadmap, not yet in place.
5 · Replay the Tape — the zero-look-ahead demonstrator
The replay artifact answers the diligence question every scored surface invites: what exactly did the system know, and when? It replays two fully worked historical cases — ALKYLAMINE (fundamental lens, 2020) and TANLA (technical lens, 2020) — where the reader scrubs to a past date and sees only what was knowable that day (prices as-traded, the latest filing then public, the score as it stood), then reveals what followed. Every number is date-stamped; no return is quoted here because the demonstration is the audit trail, not a performance claim. It is interactive by nature and therefore lives outside this printed pack: /dash/replay. Its live counterpart (charter P-05) replays ANY symbol and ANY date through the entitled /v1 API itself — knowable clock stamped, curl included: /dash/replay-any-date.
Numbers are hand-carried from the strategy ledger (the canonical record) and the machine ledger in research.db.strategy_runs; the standing corollary those failures prove: price strength is the only gross forward-return engine we have found, value/quality/credibility/accumulation are context layers not rankers, and no factor here is a fundable net-of-cost alpha vs the index at AUM. Every return/vol on this page is mean return ÷ volatility, annualised — NOT a Sharpe ratio: no risk-free rate is subtracted, so it reads higher than a textbook Sharpe would. Descriptive research record, not investment advice.