Experimental Strategies (ES-family) — DORMANT REGISTER
Lifecycle: PERMANENT · Class: CANONICAL register (do not archive).
Status: DORMANT / EXPERIMENTAL ONLY. Nothing on this page ranks, sizes, alerts or selects.
Each ES entry is a *named basket we agreed to watch forward*, carried with its own falsification
record attached.
Origin: 🧑 FOUNDER (2026-09-05, explicit instruction: "keep it as a dormant, silent strategy…
make sure that it is only an experimental strategy"). See the origins notes.
Charter: the single home for strategies that were specified but not validated — so they
stop being re-derived from scratch, and so their negative results travel with them.
Falsification numbers live in the strategy ledger, never restated here.---
Why this page exists
An idea can be worth *tracking* without being worth *trading*. Before this page such an idea had two
homes and both were wrong: the status matrix (which implies a validated lens) or nothing at all
(which means the next session re-derives it and re-pays the cost). The ES-family is the third option
— recorded, numbered, dormant, and permanently attached to its own evidence.
The binding rule for every ES entry: it may be watched, charted and discussed. It may never
be promoted to a ranker, an alert, a position size or a published score without first beating its
own recorded control numbers under a pre-registered harness. Softening an ES status is a blocking
error, exactly as with the canonical strategies (README §"Status matrix").
Deliberately kept out of the status matrix so a dormant experiment can never be read as a
deployed lens.
Register
| # | Name | Seeded from | Status | Signal verdict | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES-1 | Wounded Compounder (deep-drawdown reversal) | KPIGREEN, 2026-09-05 | DORMANT — watch only | ❌ No positive expectancy at any threshold or quality level. (The first −19.2 pp headline was n=56 and did not survive widening — see the fence.) | § 2026-09-05 + correction |
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ES-1 — Wounded Compounder
The thesis as stated (owner's framing, preserved): a stock beaten down hard but showing reversal
character across every lens at once — pivots, CPR, delivery, fundamentals, technicals — is worth
owning even while the market reads it as bearish.
Mechanical definition — 10 legs, match = passed / evaluable, signal at ≥ 90%:
| # | Leg | Test | Family |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | drawdown35 | close ≤ −35% from 252d high | price |
| 2 | near52wlow | close within +8% of 252d low | price |
| 3 | rare_air | ≤10% of last 800 closes are below today | price |
| 4 | deliv_spike | max delivery% of last 5d ≥ 1.25× own 250d median | tape |
| 5 | vol_dryup | today's turnover ≤ 35th pctile of own 251d | tape |
| 6 | below_mas | close < 50DMA and < 200DMA | price |
| 7 | value_ok | trailing PE ≤ 20 and PB ≤ 4 | fundamental |
| 8 | growth_real | 3y sales CAGR ≥ 25% | fundamental |
| 9 | lev_stress | borrowings +≥50% YoY or D/E ≥ 1.0 | fundamental |
| 10 | roce_decay | latest ROCE < mean of prior 3 years | fundamental |
Liquidity floor ≥ ₹1 cr/day 20-session ADV, NSE EQ/CM only. Fundamentals point-in-time via
fundamentals_history.report_date. Cap buckets are SEBI-style rank (top 100 LARGE · 101–250 MID ·
251+ SMALL) on close × NSE-filed share count.
The fence (read before using this list for anything)
1. The signal shows no positive expectancy — but the first headline was overstated. Backtested
2017-01 → 2026-09, 116,498 liquid deep-drawdown observations, survivorship-clean (delisted
included — COFFEEDAY appears as a 2019 match, which is the point). At ≥90% the 12m median was
−22.1% vs a −2.9% matched control (−19.2 pp) — but that cell is n=56. Widening to ≥80%
(n=347) collapses the gap to roughly −1.4% to −1.9%. The −19.2 pp figure is **small-sample and
does not survive widening the threshold**; it should never have been the headline. What survives
both cuts: no threshold and no quality bucket produces a positive median.
2. The seed is not evidence. The 10 legs were written from one 2026 name, which therefore scores
10/10 by construction. Circular by design; treat its score as a label, not a result.
3. The governance legs are missing and cannot be added retroactively. Promoter-buying and pledge
were part of the original thesis but are excluded: those feeds start ~Nov-2025 and pledge is a
single snapshot per symbol (1,576 rows / 1,465 symbols; only 96 with >1 datapoint). Any
pledge-aware ES-1 variant is a live forward overlay only — see
the ownership arcs notes, the surface that already owns those feeds.
4. This family has a uniformly negative prior. Reversal-context
(the reversal context notes), BOOK_YIELD, EARN_YIELD, PULLBACK, DELIV_MOM,
Accumulation-as-alpha — all recorded failures in the ledger.
Forward-tracking roster — frozen 2026-09-04
Screen run as-of 2026-09-04 (NSE bhav EOD). Universe 3,130 priced symbols → 1,429 liquid and
evaluable. 2 names clear ≥90%, both SMALL cap — no MID or LARGE name matched at any threshold,
which is itself the finding: at this date the configuration is a small-cap phenomenon.
⚠ CORRECTED 2026-09-05. The first published roster listed five names at ≥90%. That run had a
defect in the rare_air leg. Re-measured directly: SHAKTIPUMP 17.8%, AURIONPRO 26.9%,INDOTHAI 16.5% of their last 800 closes sit below today's — all three FAIL a leg that requires
≤10%. Only two names clear 90%. The superseded roster is kept below so the error is legible.
| Symbol | Cap | Match | Close ₹The session's last traded price as printed — NOT split/bonus-adjusted. Every cross-time comparison on this site uses the ADJUSTED close instead, so a 1:1 bonus doesn't read as a 50% crash. | Mcap ₹crShares outstanding × price — the market's price for the whole company, and the usual way size is compared. Used for grouping and filtering, never as a quality judgement: large does not mean good. | PEToday's close ÷ trailing-twelve-month EPS (the last four reported quarters summed). Blank if any of those four quarters is missing, or if TTM EPS is zero or negative — a negative P/E is not a cheap stock, it is a loss-making one, and printing a number there would mislead. | PBPrice ÷ book value per share; rupees paid per rupee of net worth. | Failed legs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPIGREEN *(seed)* | SMALL | 10/10 · 100% | 307.0 | 6,400 | 12.6 | 2.1 | none |
| TRANSRAILL | SMALL | 9/10 · 90% | 429.3 | 5,764 | 14.3 | 2.5 | lev_stress |
| SHAKTIPUMP | SMALL | 8/10 · 80% | 473.0 | 5,837 | 22.6 | 3.4 | rare_air, value_ok |
| AURIONPRO | SMALL | 8/10 · 80% | 689.7 | 3,811 | 18.0 | 2.2 | rare_air, deliv_spike |
| INDOTHAI | SMALL | 8/10 · 80% | 35.8 | 477 | 7.2 | 1.7 | rare_air, roce_decay |
TRANSRAILL carries a listing-history caveat. Its rare_air is computed over 420 bars, not
800 — it listed in Dec-2024. A recently-listed stock passes "rare air" almost by construction,
because it has no old history to sit above. Its 0.5% is much weaker evidence than KPIGREEN's 0.5%
over a full 800.
80–89% near-miss band (from the same defective run — treat as indicative only, not re-verified):
ACC · DAMCAPITAL · HMAAGRO · IPL · IRCON · KITEX · KPEL · KPITTECH · NIITMTS · OSWALPUMPS ·
PATANJALI · RUSTOMJEE · SANDUMA · WAAREERTL · WIPRO
Does business quality rescue the pattern? (asked by the owner, 2026-09-05)
Widened to ≥80% matches, n=347 with a 12m forward — a far larger sample than the ≥90% cell —
and split by business quality at signal date:
| Bucket | nEvery number in the state band carries one: the share of sessions since 2004 whose value was at or below today's. It is the difference between "74%" and "74%, broader than 94% of the last 22 years" — the same fact with its meaning attached. n is printed beside it so the reader can see how much history the rank is drawn from. Computed on read in breadth_now(); not stored. | 12m median | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Interest cover — worst third | 115 | −7.2% | 44.3% |
| Interest cover — middle third | 115 | +0.3% | 50.4% |
| Interest cover — best third | 116 | −0.9% | 47.4% |
| ROCE — worst third | 115 | −6.9% | 44.3% |
| ROCE — middle third | 115 | +0.3% | 50.4% |
| ROCE — best third | 117 | −0.8% | 47.0% |
| ROCE ≥15 AND interest cover ≥3 | 113 | −1.9% | 43.4% |
| everything else | 234 | −1.4% | 49.1% |
Read: low quality is genuinely the worst cell (−7%), so quality avoids the tail. But the explicit
good-business combination does not beat the rest, and no bucket produces a positive median.
Quality removes the disasters; it does not create an edge. The pattern is flat-to-slightly-negative
whatever the business is.
Portfolio status
DECLINED — not created, and not an open task. The owner ruled on 2026-09-05 that no portfolio
is needed. Nothing was written to stocks_in_play; there are no ES-1 rows in any book. A future
session should read this as closed, not as work waiting to be picked up.
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Adding a new ES entry
1. Number it sequentially (ES-2, ES-3…). Never renumber an existing one.
2. Give it a mechanical definition before looking at any outcome — pre-register the legs.
3. Run it against a matched control, not against the index. "Beat the market" is the wrong
question for a conditional screen; "beat the names that share its precondition" is the right one.
4. Append the result to the strategy ledger — wins and failures both.
5. Add the row to the register above with its verdict visible in the row itself.
Related
README status matrix · the reversal context notes (the closest
falsified neighbour) · the ownership arcs notes (owns the pledge/insider feeds ES-1
cannot backtest) · the patearn notes (the quality lens ES-1's value legs lean on) ·
the strategy ledger (all numbers).